30 September 2016 - bulletin 638

Updated at 2100 GMT
Latest warnings for 14L and 21W
Disturbance update


NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
HURRICANE Matthew / 14L
Warning 11 from NHC at 2100 GMT
Position 13.5N 71.6W
Location 75 miles N of Punta Gallinas, Colombia
Movement 255° (WSW) at 8 knots
Maximum sustained winds 120 knots gusting to 145 knots
Saffir Simpson hurricane windscale category IV
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 195 miles of the centre
Winds of 64 knots or higher occur within 35 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses Venezuela, Colombia, Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas
Minimum central pressure 949 mbar
Next warning from NHC at 0000 GMT

Matthew will intensify further whilst moving west. It is anticipated that the storm will veer northwest then north over the weekend. The storm will pass across eastern Cuba on Monday into Tuesday of next week. Although Matthew will start to weaken upon passing across land, the storm remains a powerful system.

Regional warnings

A tropical storm WARNING is in force for the north coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha
A hurricane watch is in force for Jamaica
A tropical storm watch is in force for Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected in Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao, and along the Colombian coast from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. The Venezuelan coast from Coro to the Colombian border could see 1 to 2 inches.
Jamaica and southwestern Haiti could see 10 to 15, locally up to 25 inches of rain. This could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides.
Life-threatening surf and riptide conditions are expected along coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, Venezuela and Colombia.

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
Tropical storm Chaba / 21W
Warning 12 from JTWC at 2100 GMT
Position 15.4N 136.0E
Location 809 miles SE of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
Movement 305° (NW) at 9 knots
Maximum sustained winds 50 knots gusting to 65 knots
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 50 to 65 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses Okinawa, Japan
Maximum significant wave height 18 feet
Next warning from JTWC at 0300 GMT

Chaba will move northwest whilst intensifying to 100 knots after 3 days. As the storm veers north, later northeast it will start to become extra-tropical whilst weakening. 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
Update from NHC at 1800 GMT
System 97E
Position 16.4N 113.5W
Likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours is LOW (10%)
Likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 5 days is LOW (10%)